Delay-of-Gratification as a Multi-Agent Survival Micro-benchmark for Long-Horizon LLMs: Social Exposure, Personas, and Tool Use Budgets

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arXiv:2609.29509v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as multi-turn agents that must sustain goals, use tools, and adapt to other agents over extended interactions. However, existing research lacks auditable, multi-turn, multi-factorial experiments that quantify LLM behavior under explicit constraints, with time-resolved statistics that reveal how behavior unfolds over long horizons. To address this gap, we develop a multi-agent micro-benchmark inspired by the Stanford marshmallow experiment: ReAct agents operate minute-by-minute with a "raise a question" tool under a per-step budget, while we factorially manipulate social context (broadcast vs. isolated), personas (age, hedonic drive), and metacognitive policy (mandatory vs. optional tool use). We analyze outcomes with Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves and discrete-time hazard models over a long risk horizon across 19,200 agent trajectories in 64 cells. Behavior shows a sharp early "eat" impulse, and only 75.9% of agents persist to the end. In a discrete-time hazard model, isolation reduces per-minute risk relative to broadcast, whereas a must-use self-questioning policy increases risk. On average, agents ask $\approx 7.12$ questions and hit the per-step budget in $\approx 6\%$ of minutes. Questioning declines faster under broadcast than isolation. Ablation experiments demonstrated that removing hedonic drive and/or persona age increases survival and completion, narrows the broadcast/isolated gap, but leaves the must vs. may ordering intact. The combined ablation (no hedonic + no persona age) yields the highest completion (approaching $1.0$). These results establish delay-of-gratification as a compact, multi-turn interaction benchmark that captures social contagion and t